trendX-AI Lab · MACRO BRIEFING
MACRO Briefing — Semaine du 13-19 juillet 2026 (W29)
Iran-US escalation, Fed hawkish shift, Q2 earnings kickoff · 16 actifs P10-P90 · Diagnostic VIX 8 signaux
⚠ REALITY-CHECK · Chiffres vérifiés le 09/07/2026 21h Paris
VIX 16.90 Yahoo/CBOE 8/07
VVIX 95.60 Yahoo 7/07
VVIX/VIX 5.65 calc — proche climax
MOVE 70.25 Yahoo 7/07 — bond calm
SKEW 145.74 Investing.com — tail loaded
Gold $4,075 TE 9/07
SPX 7,482.71 FRED 8/07 close (-0.28%)
Brent $77.70 TE 8/07 (+5.0%)
BTC $62,656 Yahoo 8/07
DXY 101.13 Yahoo 8/07 (+0.05%)
Fed hike Sept 70% CME FedWatch (58→70%/1j)
Context "Ceasefire OVER" Trump NATO Ankara 8/07
Incohérences détectées : aucune sur données critiques. Silver/PGM en sell-off marqué (-4 à -5% intraday). Données spot Palladium/Platinum sources croisées TE + JMBullion + Kitco.
Diagnostic volatilité — 8 signaux
| # | Signal | Seuil | Lecture | Statut |
|---|
| 1 | Ratio VVIX/VIX | > 5.5 = climax | 5.65 | ✓ Climax vol activé |
| 2 | MOVE (bonds) | > 120 = stress | 70.25 | ✗ Bonds calmes (avant CPI) |
| 3 | Mèche D1 VIX | > 8 pts intraday | ~2 pts (16.13→18.04 intra puis 16.90) | ≈ Modéré |
| 4 | OVX (oil vol) | > 60 = stress oil | ~55 (estim. Iran surge) | ≈ Tension oil |
| 5 | Put/Call CBOE | > 1.5 = panique | ~1.05 (equity-only, extrapolé) | ✗ Pas de panique retail |
| 6 | Retracement VIX | > 75% du high récent | 16.90 vs pic récent ~19 (avril) : 89% retracé | ✓ VIX rappé bas |
| 7 | Shooting Star D1 | chandelier visible | Mèches multiples D1 8/07 (VIX 16.13→18.04→16.90) | ✓ Rejet haut |
| 8 | SKEW | > 140 = tail loaded | 145.74 | ✓ Tail lourdement pricée |
Lecture combinée : 4 signaux ✓ / 3 ≈ / 1 ✗. Vol structurellement basse (VIX 16-17) MAIS skew et VVIX signalent tail-hedging institutionnel élevé avant CPI 14/07 + earnings banques. Configuration classique de "calme apparent, hedge lourdement chargé".
Paliers VIX (Tier 1 / 2 / 3) — probabilités W29
| Tier | Cible VIX | Proba estimée | Trigger / Lag |
|---|
| T1 | 19-22 | 45% | CPI hot 14/07 OU JPM/GS beat mixed (retour range spring 2026) |
| T2 | 25-30 | 22% | CPI > 4.0% YoY + escalation Hormuz confirmée + banks miss (2-3j) |
| T3 | 35-48+ | 8% | Blockade Hormuz officiel + oil >$95 + tech guidance cuts (5-10j) |
| Extrême | > 75 (type Volmageddon) | < 0.5% | Choc systémique rare — mentionné pour discipline |
Calibrage : implicite VIX Sept futures ~ 18.5, SKEW 145.74 charge la queue droite (paliers T2/T3 sont pricés). Fed pricing sept 70% hike élargit fourchette VIX possible.
Calendrier macro W29 (heures Paris)
| Date | Événement | Consensus/Note |
|---|
| LUN 13/07 | Discours Fed / speakers (low profile) | Position pre-CPI |
| LUN 13/07 | Earnings pré-market : Fastenal (FAST) | Read-through industriel modeste |
| LUN 13/07 | Watchlist Iran/Hormuz news flow | Vote parlement iranien blockade prévu |
| MAR 14/07 · 14h30 | 🔴 US CPI juin (headline & core) | Prev headline 3.8% YoY. Consensus 3.9-4.1% attendu. |
| MAR 14/07 · pre-market | 🔴 JPM, C, WFC, BLK earnings | Q2 kickoff banks. JPM options implied ±3.87% |
| MAR 14/07 | Empire State Manufacturing | Read régional NY |
| MER 15/07 · 14h30 | 🔴 US PPI juin | Prev 6.5% YoY final demand. Complément CPI |
| MER 15/07 · pre-market | 🔴 GS, MS, BAC earnings | Trading revenues focus. GS FICC = catalyseur clé |
| MER 15/07 | EIA Crude Stockpiles | Post-strikes contexte |
| JEU 16/07 · 14h30 | Initial Jobless Claims | Prev ~230k |
| JEU 16/07 · 14h30 | 🔴 Advance Retail Sales juin | Consommateur post-jobs miss (57k) |
| JEU 16/07 · 14h30 | Philly Fed Manufacturing | Read régional |
| JEU 16/07 · after close | 🔴 NFLX earnings (Q2) | Ads guidance + subs, IV crush post-print |
| JEU 16/07 · pre-market | 🔴 TSMC earnings | AI capex read-through mondial |
| VEN 17/07 · 14h30 | Industrial Production & Cap. Utilization | Signal santé industrielle |
| VEN 17/07 · 16h00 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) | Attentes inflation critiques |
| VEN 17/07 | Options monthly expiration (OpEx) | Pinning + repositioning post-earnings |
≥ 3 catalyseurs/jour. Semaine ultra-dense : CPI + PPI + banks + tech (NFLX/TSMC) + retail sales, à 2 semaines du FOMC 28-29/07.
16 actifs — bandes P10-P90 (5j ouvrés Lun→Ven)
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 4,075.0 |
| LUN | 4,013.7 | 4,044.6 | 4,079.1 | 4,113.9 | 4,145.5 | +0.10% |
| MAR | 3,991.0 | 4,034.4 | 4,083.2 | 4,132.5 | 4,177.5 | +0.20% |
| MER | 3,974.5 | 4,027.5 | 4,087.2 | 4,147.8 | 4,203.2 | +0.30% |
| JEU | 3,961.3 | 4,022.4 | 4,091.3 | 4,161.5 | 4,225.6 | +0.40% |
| VEN | 3,950.2 | 4,018.3 | 4,095.4 | 4,174.0 | 4,246.0 | +0.50% |
σ_ann 20.0% (GVZ 20%) · drift +0.10%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 57.6 |
| LUN | 55.5 | 56.4 | 57.4 | 58.5 | 59.4 | -0.20% |
| MAR | 54.6 | 55.9 | 57.3 | 58.8 | 60.1 | -0.40% |
| MER | 54.0 | 55.5 | 57.2 | 59.0 | 60.7 | -0.60% |
| JEU | 53.4 | 55.1 | 57.1 | 59.2 | 61.1 | -0.80% |
| VEN | 52.8 | 54.8 | 57.0 | 59.3 | 61.5 | -1.00% |
σ_ann 42.0% (RV30 ~42%) · drift -0.20%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 62,656.0 |
| LUN | 59,874.8 | 61,147.6 | 62,593.4 | 64,073.4 | 65,435.4 | -0.10% |
| MAR | 58,724.9 | 60,498.0 | 62,530.8 | 64,631.9 | 66,583.4 | -0.20% |
| MER | 57,844.1 | 59,990.3 | 62,468.3 | 65,048.7 | 67,462.2 | -0.30% |
| JEU | 57,102.8 | 59,556.2 | 62,405.9 | 65,391.9 | 68,201.5 | -0.40% |
| VEN | 56,450.9 | 59,169.4 | 62,343.5 | 65,687.9 | 68,851.2 | -0.50% |
σ_ann 55.0% (DVOL ~55%) · drift -0.10%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 1,764.3 |
| LUN | 1,672.4 | 1,714.5 | 1,762.6 | 1,811.9 | 1,857.5 | -0.10% |
| MAR | 1,634.9 | 1,693.3 | 1,760.8 | 1,830.9 | 1,896.4 | -0.20% |
| MER | 1,606.2 | 1,676.9 | 1,759.0 | 1,845.2 | 1,926.4 | -0.30% |
| JEU | 1,582.2 | 1,662.8 | 1,757.3 | 1,857.1 | 1,951.7 | -0.40% |
| VEN | 1,561.2 | 1,650.4 | 1,755.5 | 1,867.4 | 1,974.1 | -0.50% |
σ_ann 65.0% (DVOL ~65%) · drift -0.10%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 1,256.5 |
| LUN | 1,214.1 | 1,232.9 | 1,254.0 | 1,275.5 | 1,295.1 | -0.20% |
| MAR | 1,195.6 | 1,221.8 | 1,251.5 | 1,281.9 | 1,310.0 | -0.40% |
| MER | 1,181.0 | 1,212.8 | 1,249.0 | 1,286.3 | 1,320.8 | -0.60% |
| JEU | 1,168.5 | 1,204.8 | 1,246.5 | 1,289.6 | 1,329.7 | -0.80% |
| VEN | 1,157.3 | 1,197.6 | 1,244.0 | 1,292.2 | 1,337.1 | -1.00% |
σ_ann 40.0% (RV30 ~40%) · drift -0.20%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 1,591.3 |
| LUN | 1,549.2 | 1,568.2 | 1,589.7 | 1,611.5 | 1,631.3 | -0.10% |
| MAR | 1,531.1 | 1,557.9 | 1,588.1 | 1,619.0 | 1,647.2 | -0.20% |
| MER | 1,517.1 | 1,549.6 | 1,586.5 | 1,624.3 | 1,659.1 | -0.30% |
| JEU | 1,505.1 | 1,542.4 | 1,584.9 | 1,628.6 | 1,669.0 | -0.40% |
| VEN | 1,494.5 | 1,535.9 | 1,583.4 | 1,632.2 | 1,677.5 | -0.50% |
σ_ann 32.0% (RV30 ~32%) · drift -0.10%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 5,877.2 |
| LUN | 5,655.9 | 5,765.1 | 5,888.9 | 6,015.4 | 6,131.5 | +0.20% |
| MAR | 5,573.3 | 5,726.1 | 5,900.7 | 6,080.7 | 6,247.4 | +0.40% |
| MER | 5,513.3 | 5,698.9 | 5,912.5 | 6,134.1 | 6,340.7 | +0.60% |
| JEU | 5,464.9 | 5,677.9 | 5,924.4 | 6,181.5 | 6,422.5 | +0.80% |
| VEN | 5,423.9 | 5,660.8 | 5,936.2 | 6,225.0 | 6,497.0 | +1.00% |
σ_ann 50.0% (RV30 ~50% El Niño) · drift +0.20%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 3.20 |
| LUN | 3.05 | 3.12 | 3.20 | 3.29 | 3.36 | +0.10% |
| MAR | 2.99 | 3.09 | 3.21 | 3.32 | 3.43 | +0.20% |
| MER | 2.95 | 3.07 | 3.21 | 3.35 | 3.49 | +0.30% |
| JEU | 2.92 | 3.05 | 3.21 | 3.38 | 3.54 | +0.40% |
| VEN | 2.89 | 3.04 | 3.22 | 3.40 | 3.58 | +0.50% |
σ_ann 60.0% (RV30 ~60%) · drift +0.10%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 74.2 |
| LUN | 71.3 | 72.8 | 74.4 | 76.0 | 77.6 | +0.30% |
| MAR | 70.3 | 72.3 | 74.6 | 77.0 | 79.2 | +0.60% |
| MER | 69.6 | 72.0 | 74.8 | 77.7 | 80.5 | +0.90% |
| JEU | 69.0 | 71.8 | 75.1 | 78.4 | 81.6 | +1.20% |
| VEN | 68.5 | 71.7 | 75.3 | 79.1 | 82.7 | +1.50% |
σ_ann 52.0% (OVX ~52%) · drift +0.30%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 77.7 |
| LUN | 74.9 | 76.3 | 77.9 | 79.6 | 81.1 | +0.30% |
| MAR | 73.8 | 75.9 | 78.2 | 80.6 | 82.8 | +0.60% |
| MER | 73.1 | 75.6 | 78.4 | 81.3 | 84.1 | +0.90% |
| JEU | 72.5 | 75.4 | 78.6 | 82.1 | 85.3 | +1.20% |
| VEN | 72.1 | 75.2 | 78.9 | 82.7 | 86.3 | +1.50% |
σ_ann 50.0% (RV30 ~50%) · drift +0.30%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 6.15 |
| LUN | 6.03 | 6.08 | 6.14 | 6.21 | 6.26 | -0.10% |
| MAR | 5.97 | 6.05 | 6.14 | 6.23 | 6.31 | -0.20% |
| MER | 5.93 | 6.02 | 6.13 | 6.24 | 6.34 | -0.30% |
| JEU | 5.89 | 6.00 | 6.13 | 6.25 | 6.37 | -0.40% |
| VEN | 5.86 | 5.98 | 6.12 | 6.26 | 6.39 | -0.50% |
σ_ann 24.0% (RV30 ~24%) · drift -0.10%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 24,897.5 |
| LUN | 24,469.5 | 24,647.9 | 24,847.7 | 25,049.1 | 25,231.8 | -0.20% |
| MAR | 24,265.9 | 24,516.6 | 24,798.1 | 25,082.8 | 25,341.9 | -0.40% |
| MER | 24,099.6 | 24,404.9 | 24,748.5 | 25,097.0 | 25,414.9 | -0.60% |
| JEU | 23,952.8 | 24,303.5 | 24,699.1 | 25,101.1 | 25,468.5 | -0.80% |
| VEN | 23,818.6 | 24,208.7 | 24,649.7 | 25,098.7 | 25,509.9 | -1.00% |
σ_ann 19.0% (V-DAX ~19%) · drift -0.20%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 101.1 |
| LUN | 100.6 | 100.9 | 101.2 | 101.6 | 101.8 | +0.10% |
| MAR | 100.5 | 100.9 | 101.3 | 101.8 | 102.2 | +0.20% |
| MER | 100.4 | 100.9 | 101.4 | 102.0 | 102.5 | +0.30% |
| JEU | 100.3 | 100.9 | 101.5 | 102.2 | 102.8 | +0.40% |
| VEN | 100.3 | 100.9 | 101.6 | 102.4 | 103.0 | +0.50% |
σ_ann 7.5% (RV30 ~7.5%) · drift +0.10%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 29,173.0 |
| LUN | 28,677.1 | 28,897.2 | 29,143.9 | 29,392.6 | 29,618.3 | -0.10% |
| MAR | 28,457.4 | 28,766.9 | 29,114.7 | 29,466.7 | 29,787.2 | -0.20% |
| MER | 28,283.5 | 28,660.7 | 29,085.6 | 29,516.9 | 29,910.5 | -0.30% |
| JEU | 28,133.2 | 28,566.9 | 29,056.6 | 29,554.6 | 30,010.2 | -0.40% |
| VEN | 27,998.2 | 28,481.1 | 29,027.5 | 29,584.4 | 30,094.7 | -0.50% |
σ_ann 20.0% (VXN ~20%) · drift -0.10%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 7,482.7 |
| LUN | 7,373.3 | 7,421.4 | 7,475.2 | 7,529.4 | 7,578.5 | -0.10% |
| MAR | 7,324.2 | 7,391.9 | 7,467.8 | 7,544.4 | 7,614.1 | -0.20% |
| MER | 7,285.0 | 7,367.5 | 7,460.3 | 7,554.2 | 7,639.8 | -0.30% |
| JEU | 7,251.0 | 7,345.9 | 7,452.8 | 7,561.3 | 7,660.2 | -0.40% |
| VEN | 7,220.4 | 7,326.1 | 7,445.4 | 7,566.6 | 7,677.4 | -0.50% |
σ_ann 17.0% (VIX 16.90%) · drift -0.10%/j
| Jour | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | Drift % |
|---|
| Spot | 16.9 |
| LUN | 15.6 | 16.3 | 17.1 | 17.9 | 18.7 | +1.00% |
| MAR | 15.2 | 16.1 | 17.2 | 18.4 | 19.5 | +2.00% |
| MER | 14.9 | 16.1 | 17.4 | 18.9 | 20.3 | +3.00% |
| JEU | 14.7 | 16.0 | 17.6 | 19.3 | 21.0 | +4.00% |
| VEN | 14.6 | 16.0 | 17.8 | 19.7 | 21.7 | +5.00% |
σ_ann 110.0% (VVIX-implied ~110%) · drift +1.00%/j
Méthodo : log-normal 1j, σ_daily = σ_annual/√252. Drift ∈ [−0.6%, +0.6%]/j selon catalyseur ; documenté par actif. σ source : indices IV dédiés (VIX→SPX, VXN→US100, GVZ→Gold, OVX→Oil) sinon RV30. VIX ligne : drift +1%/j (mean-revert + skew charge). Cocoa et Brent : drift positif via El Niño + Iran risk.
Synthèse trader — 4 setups d'observation
| # | Setup | Direction | Trigger | Invalidation | Proba |
|---|
| 1 | Gold long P75 | LONG XAU | Close > $4,120 + escalation Hormuz | Close < $4,000 | 52% |
| 2 | VIX call spread | LONG VIX | Achat call 19/22 août sur CPI hot (>4.0%) | CPI < 3.7% | 45% |
| 3 | Brent breakout | LONG CL/CO | Brent > $80 sur news blockade | Brent < $74 (désescalade) | 42% |
| 4 | SPX put spread | SHORT SPX | Break < 7,420 post-CPI + banks mixed | Close > 7,510 | 40% |
Setups d'observation, non recommandations. Sizing prudent (≤ 0.5% risk par idée). Invalidation explicite. Aucune proba au-dessus de 55%.