IA19XUS15 25.1128 23H06 YHFI US100 15min.csv

Europe/Paris · Dimanche exclu · Tolérance = 20% du range médian de J · Calibration rolling isotonic (fenêtre 120 jours).

EV : TP = distance au centre de la Value Area (15–85%), SL = κ×tolérance (κ = 1.50).

Δ1m-2.6%Δ3m7.5%Δ1y7.5%

Ranking proba×distance — Open vs Prix actuel

Niveau	Niveau (J-1 actuel)	p calibrée	Distance méd. vs Open	Score proba/dist	EV	n
R1	2.534e+04	60%	98.9667	0.1679	106.1037	59
FIB79	2.526e+04	60%	114.3026	0.1499	109.8802	59
P	2.521e+04	53%	106.5667	0.1393	94.0619	59
FIB62	2.522e+04	54%	119.6554	0.1321	99.5791	59
FIB50	2.519e+04	50%	120.1500	0.1204	95.0124	59
FIB38	2.517e+04	50%	138.2158	0.1081	103.0244	59
FIB24	2.513e+04	38%	160.5684	0.0733	83.9079	59
S1	2.511e+04	39%	187.8333	0.0655	101.2380	59
R2	2.544e+04	31%	185.3000	0.0530	82.9543	59
PCT_99	2.506e+04	34%	239.2690	0.0466	80.0489	59
S2	2.498e+04	27%	327.8667	0.0280	101.0332	59
PCT_98	2.48e+04	18%	457.6740	0.0137	63.5817	59
S3	2.488e+04	15%	440.7333	0.0121	76.8931	59
R3	2.556e+04	7%	295.1667	0.0085	14.3092	59
PCT_97	2.455e+04	11%	701.5960	0.0055	56.9298	59
PCT_95	2.404e+04	7%	1197.5450	0.0023	72.6199	59
PCT_90	2.278e+04	7%	2421.3500	0.0011	162.6295	59
PCT_85	2.151e+04	7%	3665.6450	0.0008	252.9446	59
PCT_80	2.025e+04	7%	4893.3600	0.0006	343.2597	59

Niveau	Niveau (J-1 actuel)	p calibrée	Distance méd. vs Prix actuel	Score proba/dist	EV	n
R1	2.534e+04	60%	127.4000	0.1391	106.1037	59
FIB79	2.526e+04	60%	153.0510	0.1196	109.8802	59
FIB62	2.522e+04	54%	155.9412	0.1074	99.5791	59
P	2.521e+04	53%	168.6667	0.0975	94.0619	59
FIB50	2.519e+04	50%	168.3000	0.0924	95.0124	59
FIB38	2.517e+04	50%	192.4428	0.0827	103.0244	59
FIB24	2.513e+04	38%	210.2296	0.0587	83.9079	59
S1	2.511e+04	39%	246.9333	0.0519	101.2380	59
PCT_99	2.506e+04	34%	245.2230	0.0456	80.0489	59
R2	2.544e+04	31%	235.3667	0.0433	82.9543	59
S2	2.498e+04	27%	364.8000	0.0254	101.0332	59
PCT_98	2.48e+04	18%	445.7740	0.0141	63.5817	59
S3	2.488e+04	15%	475.9333	0.0113	76.8931	59
R3	2.556e+04	7%	351.3667	0.0073	14.3092	59
PCT_97	2.455e+04	11%	697.6110	0.0055	56.9298	59
PCT_95	2.404e+04	7%	1193.0650	0.0023	72.6199	59
PCT_90	2.278e+04	7%	2436.4700	0.0011	162.6295	59
PCT_85	2.151e+04	7%	3693.5250	0.0008	252.9446	59
PCT_80	2.025e+04	7%	4894.3000	0.0006	343.2597	59

Extrêmes intraday — horaires probables (High / Low)

Pour chaque jour de la semaine, on affiche les 9 horaires les plus fréquents où le High et le Low de la journée surviennent. Le % est rapporté au nombre de jours de ce weekday.

Jour	High — Top 9 (%%)									Low — Top 9 (%%)
Lundi	21:45 (25%)	20:30 (17%)	15:30 (8%)	15:45 (8%)	16:00 (8%)	16:30 (8%)	20:15 (8%)	20:45 (8%)	21:15 (8%)	15:30 (42%)	16:30 (17%)	21:15 (17%)	14:30 (8%)	17:30 (8%)	21:00 (8%)
Mardi	15:30 (33%)	21:45 (25%)	18:45 (17%)	16:15 (8%)	19:45 (8%)	20:30 (8%)				15:45 (33%)	16:30 (17%)	17:00 (8%)	17:30 (8%)	17:45 (8%)	18:00 (8%)	19:30 (8%)	21:45 (8%)
Mercredi	15:30 (17%)	16:15 (17%)	15:00 (8%)	15:45 (8%)	16:30 (8%)	17:30 (8%)	21:00 (8%)	21:15 (8%)	21:30 (8%)	15:30 (17%)	15:45 (8%)	16:00 (8%)	17:45 (8%)	18:00 (8%)	18:30 (8%)	19:15 (8%)	19:30 (8%)	19:45 (8%)
Jeudi	15:30 (27%)	15:00 (9%)	16:15 (9%)	16:30 (9%)	16:45 (9%)	17:15 (9%)	17:30 (9%)	17:45 (9%)	21:15 (9%)	15:30 (27%)	20:45 (18%)	15:45 (9%)	17:00 (9%)	18:15 (9%)	19:30 (9%)	20:30 (9%)	21:45 (9%)
Vendredi	15:45 (15%)	21:45 (15%)	14:30 (8%)	15:30 (8%)	18:00 (8%)	18:45 (8%)	19:45 (8%)	20:15 (8%)	20:30 (8%)	15:30 (38%)	16:15 (8%)	16:30 (8%)	17:00 (8%)	17:30 (8%)	18:00 (8%)	18:15 (8%)	19:45 (8%)	21:45 (8%)

Top 10 par jour de la semaine (proba de retouche O/C ≥ 3h)

Lundi — Créneau	Proba	n	k
18:30	58%	12	7
18:45	58%	12	7
15:30	50%	12	6
17:45	50%	12	6
18:00	50%	12	6
18:15	50%	12	6
17:15	42%	12	5
15:45	33%	12	4
16:00	33%	12	4
16:15	33%	12	4

Mardi — Créneau	Proba	n	k
15:30	67%	12	8
15:45	58%	12	7
16:00	50%	12	6
17:15	50%	12	6
18:15	42%	12	5
18:30	42%	12	5
16:15	33%	12	4
16:45	33%	12	4
17:00	33%	12	4
17:30	33%	12	4

Mercredi — Créneau	Proba	n	k
14:30	100%	1	1
14:45	100%	1	1
15:00	100%	1	1
17:30	67%	12	8
17:45	67%	12	8
18:00	67%	12	8
17:15	58%	12	7
15:30	50%	12	6
15:45	50%	12	6
18:30	50%	12	6

Jeudi — Créneau	Proba	n	k
14:30	100%	1	1
14:45	100%	1	1
15:15	100%	1	1
16:30	64%	11	7
16:00	55%	11	6
15:45	45%	11	5
16:15	45%	11	5
16:45	45%	11	5
17:00	45%	11	5
18:15	45%	11	5

Vendredi — Créneau	Proba	n	k
14:30	100%	1	1
14:45	100%	1	1
15:00	100%	1	1
15:15	100%	1	1
15:45	58%	12	7
16:00	58%	12	7
15:30	50%	12	6
16:15	42%	12	5
16:30	42%	12	5
16:45	42%	12	5

Heatmap HH:MM × Jour — Proba de retouche O/C (≥ 3h)

Chaque cellule = % de bougies retouchées (≥ +3h). Après le %, on affiche les trois horaires de première retouche les plus probables pour ce jour.

HH:MM	Lun	Mar	Mer	Jeu	Ven	Sam	Dim
14:30	0%	0%	100% 18:00	100% 17:30	100% 20:30	—	—
14:45	0%	0%	100% 18:00	100% 19:30	100% 20:15	—	—
15:00	0%	0%	100% 19:00	0%	100% 20:15	—	—
15:15	0%	0%	0%	100% 18:15	100% 20:15	—	—
15:30	50% 18:30 18:45	67% 18:45 18:30 19:00 21:45	50% 19:00 18:30 20:00 19:30	36% 18:30 19:30 21:15	50% 18:30 21:45 20:30 19:30 19:00	—	—
15:45	33% 18:45 19:15	58% 18:45 19:00 21:15	50% 18:45 19:00 20:00 21:15	45% 18:45 21:45 20:00 21:15	58% 19:15 18:45 21:45 20:15	—	—
16:00	33% 19:15 19:00	50% 19:00	25% 19:00 20:00	55% 19:00 19:30 19:15 21:15 20:15	58% 19:15 19:00 20:30	—	—
16:15	33% 19:15 21:00 19:45	33% 19:15 19:30 21:30	25% 19:15 19:30	45% 19:15 21:00 20:15	42% 19:15 19:30 20:00	—	—
16:30	33% 19:30 21:15 20:15	25% 19:30 19:45 21:30	25% 19:30	64% 19:30 19:45 20:30	42% 19:30 20:45 20:30	—	—
16:45	25% 20:30 20:45 20:15	33% 19:45 21:30	33% 19:45 20:15 21:15	45% 19:45 20:30	42% 19:45 20:45 20:15	—	—
17:00	25% 20:15 20:30	33% 20:00 20:15 21:30	42% 20:00 20:30 21:00	45% 20:00 20:30 21:00	33% 20:00 21:30 21:45	—	—
17:15	42% 20:30 20:15 21:00	50% 20:15 21:30 21:45 21:15	58% 20:15 21:30 21:45 20:45	36% 20:15 20:30 21:15	33% 20:45 21:30	—	—
17:30	33% 20:30	33% 20:30 21:30 21:45	67% 20:30 20:45 21:15 21:45	36% 20:30 21:30	33% 20:45 21:30 20:30	—	—
17:45	50% 20:45 21:30	33% 21:15 20:45 21:30	67% 21:00 20:45 21:30 21:45	36% 20:45 21:00 21:45	33% 21:30 21:45 20:45 21:15	—	—
18:00	50% 21:00 21:45 21:30	33% 21:00 21:30 21:15	67% 21:00 21:30 21:45	36% 21:00 21:15 21:45	33% 21:30 21:00 21:15	—	—
18:15	50% 21:15 21:45 21:30	42% 21:45 21:15 21:30	42% 21:45 21:30 21:15	45% 21:15 21:45	25% 21:30	—	—
18:30	58% 21:30 21:45	42% 21:30 21:45	50% 21:30 21:45	36% 21:30 21:45	25% 21:30	—	—
18:45	58% 21:45	33% 21:45	42% 21:45	45% 21:45	25% 21:45	—	—
19:00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
19:15	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
19:30	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
19:45	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
20:00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
20:15	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
20:30	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
20:45	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
21:00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
21:15	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
21:30	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—
21:45	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	—	—

Score = p_calibrée / (1 + distance / range_médian). Plus haut ⇒ meilleur compromis proximité × probabilité. « Niveau (J-1 actuel) » = valeur du niveau calculée sur le dernier J-1 (par rapport au jour J le plus récent du fichier).